60% of Canadians Voted for Higher Taxes, or the dangers of historical determinism
Of course many Conservative voters were probably for higher taxes too, and many of the voters for other parties for lower taxes, as people vote on a whole number of issues, but taken as a whole, it bears true: 60% of Canadians voted for higher taxes. All the opposition parties were in favour of raising taxes one way or another, and the Conservatives opposed (except for "hidden" taxes, like EI premiums), or at least that's what the electorate was given to understand. And I know that 40% gave the CPC a majority, and it's clever politics, etc., and I've recognised that since Canada does not operate on a strict left-right axis it would be self-defeating for progressives to advocate political strategy on that basis. What I want to reiterate so no-one forgets, is what many have often noted, including myself: Public Prefers Higher Taxes & Better Services To Same or Lower Taxes & Services. And that 60% in favour of higher taxes is drawn from the 60% of eligible voters who voted. Since we know that voter turnout decreases with economic status, the higher the turnout, the higher the percentage of the population likely to voter for higher taxes. Had we 100% turn-out, the percentage of voters who prefer higher taxes/better services to lower taxes/worse services would rise from 60% to close to 80%.
I wanted to get this on the record so no-one forgets, because this last election was one of the few where there was, as far as the public understood it (leaving aside EI premiums, airport taxes, etc), a clear choice between higher taxes and lower taxes. And 60% chose higher taxes.
We all tend to historical determinism at one time or another. It may seem funny for me, who so often analyses situations and trends and foresees the consequences, to criticise it. But I always see the likelihoods, but only the "LIKELY"-HOOD. Politics would be meaningless if we didn't have free will, and the ability to change things.
I was just glancing at the usual tosh about victory or defeat being pre-determined and was shaking my head and laughing, as usual. Nonsense. Lots of things could have gone differently. For me, the French debate and Duceppe at the PQ convention were crucial. But others will pick their own things. But there was nothing inevitable about the result. Which is not to say that analysis of long-term trends is untrue, but simply events also determine those trends, and vice-versa. Great Men and Marxist views of history both true, for anyone who knows a bit and has lived a bit. It took Dion studying under Crozier to understand that apparently.
Think back to November 2005. If Layton hadn't brought down the Martin government, had given it the few months' respite it asked, the Kelowna Accord and Child Care would have been introduced. Even if the CPC had subsequently taken government, those agreements would have had a structural effect on Canadian society, towards more communitarianism. Neither Tommy Douglas nor David Lewis would have brought down Martin at that time, wasting the chance to get such structural changes finally through the system, since they understood not just such policies' material benefits but also the way they nudge the culture. Harper gets that too, which is why he does what he does, the other way. But Layton is not a social democrat, he's a political adventurer. And his model's unsubstainable, as noted.
If Judy W-L, Layton and the NDP hadn't gotten Zaccardelli to intervene in the 2006 campaign, we would likely not have had a CPC minority.
If CTV hadn't screwed Dion when the LPC were riding a post-debate high in 2008, the LPC would have won more seats.
If Michaëlle Jean had refused Harper's request for prorogation in 2008, the coalition would have come to power.
If, if, if, and they all would have meant the probable end of Harper, and a new dynamic. But we'll never know, because of "events, dear boy, events."
As Macmillan knew, WWI, at least as we knew it, was not inevitable. One day in Sarajevo, and then this, and then that. But it didn't need to happen that way. If Hindenburg hadn't listened to von Papen, things could have gone differently in 1933. Or if the Communists had ever agreed to support the Social Democrats. Etc.
Yes, there are "tendances lourdes". But they're "tendances", not inevitabilities.
After any event, some claim it was all pre-planned and foretold to stress how brilliant they were, and others say the same, to relieve themselves of culpability. As someone who hasn't always been wrong at understanding things and where they're headed, I think I may understand better than most just how flimsy these potentialities are.
Or did everyone know voters in Quebec would lurch toward the NDP, willing to vote for unilingual outsiders to their ridings who wouldn't campaign and were nominated using fraudulent methods?
So for anyone to declare that Harper is some visionary and he's guiding Canada where it was destined to go is a load of hooey. He's a smart guy, but events, dear boy, events, are what put him where he is.
A strong majority of Canadians, like people everywhere, given political economic analysis, favour more taxes and services over less. But Harper, given time, will bend Canada a bit more toward a more individualistic, conservative society. I judge that contrary to the interests of the vast majority, against the public good. Just as I judge his decentralist agenda as contrary to the long-term interests of the unity of Canada, and the interests of all Canadians, who would really suffer during and after the tumult of its dismemberment, or attempted dismemberment.
But he's not inevitable, Harper understands that better than anyone. Many things could have changed, and many things could change, and will. So don't overestimate the weight of trends, but don't ignore them either. Don't pretend that this or that one moment was decisive, but don't pretend it was less important than it was. Keep some perspective, immediate and long-term.
And never forget, the vast majority of Canadians favour Macdonald-Trudeauism, taxes and services. And they will continue to do so for the foreseeable future. Doesn't mean it will win elections. But it does mean commentators should be careful in their analysis.
And for the LPC, it means it needs to be serious and have clear premises and work hard and smart. But it's not the end of the world, and if we get things right we have a better chance next time than many realise right now.
NB. Ceci sera mon dernier billet, au moins, pour un bon moment. Je l'espère, en tout cas. J'ai fait ce que j'ai pu, pour l'instant.
I wanted to get this on the record so no-one forgets, because this last election was one of the few where there was, as far as the public understood it (leaving aside EI premiums, airport taxes, etc), a clear choice between higher taxes and lower taxes. And 60% chose higher taxes.
We all tend to historical determinism at one time or another. It may seem funny for me, who so often analyses situations and trends and foresees the consequences, to criticise it. But I always see the likelihoods, but only the "LIKELY"-HOOD. Politics would be meaningless if we didn't have free will, and the ability to change things.
I was just glancing at the usual tosh about victory or defeat being pre-determined and was shaking my head and laughing, as usual. Nonsense. Lots of things could have gone differently. For me, the French debate and Duceppe at the PQ convention were crucial. But others will pick their own things. But there was nothing inevitable about the result. Which is not to say that analysis of long-term trends is untrue, but simply events also determine those trends, and vice-versa. Great Men and Marxist views of history both true, for anyone who knows a bit and has lived a bit. It took Dion studying under Crozier to understand that apparently.
Think back to November 2005. If Layton hadn't brought down the Martin government, had given it the few months' respite it asked, the Kelowna Accord and Child Care would have been introduced. Even if the CPC had subsequently taken government, those agreements would have had a structural effect on Canadian society, towards more communitarianism. Neither Tommy Douglas nor David Lewis would have brought down Martin at that time, wasting the chance to get such structural changes finally through the system, since they understood not just such policies' material benefits but also the way they nudge the culture. Harper gets that too, which is why he does what he does, the other way. But Layton is not a social democrat, he's a political adventurer. And his model's unsubstainable, as noted.
If Judy W-L, Layton and the NDP hadn't gotten Zaccardelli to intervene in the 2006 campaign, we would likely not have had a CPC minority.
If CTV hadn't screwed Dion when the LPC were riding a post-debate high in 2008, the LPC would have won more seats.
If Michaëlle Jean had refused Harper's request for prorogation in 2008, the coalition would have come to power.
If, if, if, and they all would have meant the probable end of Harper, and a new dynamic. But we'll never know, because of "events, dear boy, events."
As Macmillan knew, WWI, at least as we knew it, was not inevitable. One day in Sarajevo, and then this, and then that. But it didn't need to happen that way. If Hindenburg hadn't listened to von Papen, things could have gone differently in 1933. Or if the Communists had ever agreed to support the Social Democrats. Etc.
Yes, there are "tendances lourdes". But they're "tendances", not inevitabilities.
After any event, some claim it was all pre-planned and foretold to stress how brilliant they were, and others say the same, to relieve themselves of culpability. As someone who hasn't always been wrong at understanding things and where they're headed, I think I may understand better than most just how flimsy these potentialities are.
Or did everyone know voters in Quebec would lurch toward the NDP, willing to vote for unilingual outsiders to their ridings who wouldn't campaign and were nominated using fraudulent methods?
So for anyone to declare that Harper is some visionary and he's guiding Canada where it was destined to go is a load of hooey. He's a smart guy, but events, dear boy, events, are what put him where he is.
A strong majority of Canadians, like people everywhere, given political economic analysis, favour more taxes and services over less. But Harper, given time, will bend Canada a bit more toward a more individualistic, conservative society. I judge that contrary to the interests of the vast majority, against the public good. Just as I judge his decentralist agenda as contrary to the long-term interests of the unity of Canada, and the interests of all Canadians, who would really suffer during and after the tumult of its dismemberment, or attempted dismemberment.
But he's not inevitable, Harper understands that better than anyone. Many things could have changed, and many things could change, and will. So don't overestimate the weight of trends, but don't ignore them either. Don't pretend that this or that one moment was decisive, but don't pretend it was less important than it was. Keep some perspective, immediate and long-term.
And never forget, the vast majority of Canadians favour Macdonald-Trudeauism, taxes and services. And they will continue to do so for the foreseeable future. Doesn't mean it will win elections. But it does mean commentators should be careful in their analysis.
And for the LPC, it means it needs to be serious and have clear premises and work hard and smart. But it's not the end of the world, and if we get things right we have a better chance next time than many realise right now.
NB. Ceci sera mon dernier billet, au moins, pour un bon moment. Je l'espère, en tout cas. J'ai fait ce que j'ai pu, pour l'instant.



