Eugene Forsey Liberal

Monday, January 25, 2010

"Reader" Corrects Rally Lowballing In Detail

Making my point about lowballing, "Reader" in Comments: "Hey LKO, real nice to see you persisting with this. It is important -- not because of the numbers -- but because of the idea. Democracy might be a game to politicians -- it's not a game to me (or you I suspect).

Yesterday, I posted an estimate of crowd size in Toronto based on what I observed having been there -- it was 15,000.
After reading all the stuff here, I thought I ought to fine-tune my count. The explanation is long -- so bear with me. . .

I found a photo from atop a building on Bay Street. I downloaded a copy, fixed the location (bus terminal on Bay St.) zoomed in to measurable landmarks and counted heads. My count was 500 people for 70 feet. (70' long x ~ 66' wide). BTW, this was one of the least dense parts of the march that I observed.

I went on to measure the length of the "parade" -- THAT I COULD OBSERVE (used Google Earth to measure my POV vs line of sight) -- it equaled 2,500 feet. (It was longer, a lot longer.) Just for fun, I divided 2,500 feet by 70 feet to get 36 rounded. Multiply by 500 to yield -- surprise -- 18,000 -- even higher than the estimate I posted earlier.

As an anecdote -- I am a shy and cautious old man. I was cold, so I hung out with my wife and son inside the AMC Centre.

So did lots of other people.

It may be true that 7,000 people occupied Dundas Square. Yet many more wanted to -- but it's too small. (Lots and lots were sheltering in the surrounding malls). We waited until the square emptied to join the end of the line for the "parade" -- then we marched. When we reached Shuter Street, I said to my wife and son, "Can we drop out at Queen -- I'm really cold?"

My wife looked back, hoping we could leave graciously, without being noticed. Behind us? -- hundreds more."

4 Comments:

  • At 11:12 AM, Blogger Northern PoV said…

    We had good warm weather in Vancouver (it wasn't raining for a nice change).

    The media est. that Wherry is using for Vancouver is 1000.
    Even the Sun (not exactly yer left-wing-rag) mentions "thousands".

    And the crowd really showed it size walking in the march, while the rallies at either end were boring and didn't hold the crowds.
    My guess was 3000.

    Big problem: I am willing to bet that the vast majority of participants voted in the last election.

    How do we mobilize the 40% that don't vote?

     
  • At 11:14 AM, Blogger Northern PoV said…

    oh ya
    the NDP were giving out signs - mostly taken by folks who did not realize they were accepting a party-branded sign.

     
  • At 8:31 PM, Blogger Eugene Forsey Liberal said…

    Comment 1: interesting. Issue like this is kind that gets 40% ginned up, esp. if they see other 60% are really into it.

    Comment 2: Ah Dippers. I mentioned this somewhere recently. But today, they seem to be trying to be better/good.

     
  • At 7:51 AM, Blogger Emily Dee said…

    They handed them out in Kingston (Ontario)as well.

    I was a bit miffed but then I realized that the only way we can remove the Harper government is to show that there are options, despite the fact the media play into it by suggesting there is no opposition.

    I guess it's time to pick a team.

    I am also a Liberal supporter and will promote the party but am trying very hard not to attack the others on the progressive side, at least for now.

    Come election time the gloves will be off if they don't reach some kind of compromise.

     

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