PLCQ & QC Analysis
This reply to a comment by Ottlib might be of general interest: I guarantee you the PLCQ will pick up seats. But fewer than hoped and expected, given the particular math of five-way races in QC. I expect the Cons to hold to most of their current 10 - with the money they're pouring in to those ridings, I mean, they should've lost a couple last time, but the Blackburn argument that the Cons bring home the bacon unfortunately strikes a duplessiste chord with many, and works. The Cons will just pour all their resources into holding what they have, and their current poll numbers, especially if they inch up a point or two, and it seems they will indeed form the nest gov't, make it likely they'll succeed in defending most.
The nationalist-separatist chattering classes have been keeping their powder dry. Once an election starts, they'll start in on Iggy and Iraq, torture, etc., which has been largely ignored in QC until now. By the end of the campaign everyone in QC will know that that nice man who got QC recognised as a nation is actually, shockingly, a foreign policy neo-con, whose vote, along with three* supporters, would have been enough to stop the Afghan mission in 2006 and save their fellow QC soldiers' lives...it won't be pretty. The PLC will pick fewer seats than hoped, as a result.
*One or two actually, since margin of vote was four, so depending on how Milliken would have voted, Iggy+1 or 2 would have been enough to stop extension of mission, But of course he was part of the 1/4 of caucus that voted with the Cons against the 3/4 majority and guaranteed an extension of the mission after only eight hours debate. Should've been whipped vote, as Dion said, on such a fundamental public policy issue (unlike moral outlier issues like abortion or capital punishment). But Graham was pro-war and wet, and how many have died since? Blood on a lot of hands. If Iggy had voted against, probably most of his supporters would have joined him, at least the two needed to stop extension. But it was his own pro-Con policy that divided caucus in the first place and led to free vote. And all the lost Canadian lives and treasure since.
The nationalist-separatist chattering classes have been keeping their powder dry. Once an election starts, they'll start in on Iggy and Iraq, torture, etc., which has been largely ignored in QC until now. By the end of the campaign everyone in QC will know that that nice man who got QC recognised as a nation is actually, shockingly, a foreign policy neo-con, whose vote, along with three* supporters, would have been enough to stop the Afghan mission in 2006 and save their fellow QC soldiers' lives...it won't be pretty. The PLC will pick fewer seats than hoped, as a result.
*One or two actually, since margin of vote was four, so depending on how Milliken would have voted, Iggy+1 or 2 would have been enough to stop extension of mission, But of course he was part of the 1/4 of caucus that voted with the Cons against the 3/4 majority and guaranteed an extension of the mission after only eight hours debate. Should've been whipped vote, as Dion said, on such a fundamental public policy issue (unlike moral outlier issues like abortion or capital punishment). But Graham was pro-war and wet, and how many have died since? Blood on a lot of hands. If Iggy had voted against, probably most of his supporters would have joined him, at least the two needed to stop extension. But it was his own pro-Con policy that divided caucus in the first place and led to free vote. And all the lost Canadian lives and treasure since.
posted by Eugene Forsey Liberal @ 5:35 PM
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